Wang Luolin, a renowned Chinese economist, forecast on Monday that the rate of China's economic growth will continue to decelerate until at least the third quarter next year, when it may begin to increase.
Wang, who used to serve as the deputy head of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said the country's growth could be expected to stay between eight and nine percent, "which remained the highest growth of all economies", over the following two or three years after the pick-up.
He made the forecast on the expectations that the global crisis would be eased by then, and also on the effect of direct support from government measures to stimulate the economy.
China announced a four trillion yuan (US$584.8 billion) stimulus package last month to boost the economy, followed by more specific policies such as raising export rebates and the latest pledge of more new loans next year.
The Chinese economy cooled sharply as growth in exports and property investment slowed. The growth pace was 9 percent in the third quarter, down from 10.4 percent in the first half.
Economic data released this week showed further risks of a slowdown in the economy. Exports in November slid 2.2 percent year on year, the first monthly decline since June 2001.
The fourth quarter this year and the first quarter next year would be the toughest time for Chinese economy, Wang said. However, "there is no financial crisis in China, and no economic recession is ahead for the country."
He also said the worst would be over for the world economy in the second half of next year, or in the fourth quarter at the latest, but he foresaw a prolonged "recession" period.
Wang explained that in the so-called "recession" period, major economies would post no declines in growth, but would expand at around one percent or less.
Gong Fangxiong, chief economist with JP Morgan Chase, echoed his view. Gong said last week that the rate of decline in China's economy was likely to bottom out in the second quarter of 2009.
(Xinhua News Agency December 16, 2008)
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